Week 11 starting means that I have another chance to adapt the model and make it potentially more accurate. Today, the Seahawks and the Cardinals are playing.
From last week, my win accuracy was around 86%, but my cover accuracy was only 50%. My wins were well calculated, and I am very happy about that, but you could flip a coin for each of the spreads and do just as well as I did, so that definitely needs fixing
If you looked in my last posts, you can tell that there is a difference between my predicted score and my spreads. That is because the predicted score is derived formulaically from the PF, PA, and adjusted ELO of each team, whereas the spread calculation is a lot more involved. The spread calculation is based off of the weighted averages of three different spread calculations. For the first week, I took an educated guess on how much to weight each of the three spreads, but this week I am trying something different.
This week, I decided to add an adaptive spread component to the model. This will adjust the weights week after week based on how accurate the last week's projected spreads guessed the observed spreads. I will cumulatively look at the effect of these weights, and hopefully over time be able to have a higher spread covering percentage.
If you'd like access to the model, just email me, I'd be happy to share :)