I will admit...Week 11 did not go as planned. There were a lot of upsets throughout the weekend, and Vegas did incredibly well ATS (against the spread) this weekend. My percentages weren't great, I will admit. One could argue that they could have randomly picked the wins and covers and done better overall. It happens to the best of us, and the only thing we can do is get up from the loss and figure out what went wrong.
So first of all, I would like to address the concept of the Adaptive Spread. Last week I mentioned that we had three different spreads and that I would use Excel's Solver to adjust the weights to minimize the difference between the actual spreads and the observed spreads. Last week, it wanted me to focus 100% of my efforts on the consistently larger spread, which could be due to the outcome of last week's games. I decided to try it for this week, and due to the many upsets that occurred, it did not do any better than the cover accuracy. I plan to plug more numbers into the adaptive spread formula to get a more comprehensive ratio balance.
I also want to make some adjustments per the win accuracy. I want to take a weighted time-focused approach more than an overall season approach, as many teams play at a different level at this point in the season than they did at the beginning. Thus, I will try weighting the ELO's that I use differently.
I hope this next week will be better, but we live and we learn!
If you'd like access to the model, just email me, I'd be happy to share :)