After a tough Week 11 and some pretty significant model changes, I was looking forwards to a successful Week 12. Thanksgiving proved to be a great test of the model, as the model nailed both of the winners and both of the spreads.
This week saw a 18.75% increase in win probability success, a 8.04% increase for the spread success, and a 20.54% increase in adaptive spread success. The original adaptive spread was an exaggerated version of the spread, but this week's was a more conservative spread, and it proved to be a lot more successful. Of the teams that won, the adaptive spread was correct 8 out of 12 times (about 75%) which is nothing to scoff at but nothing to be proud of either. Based on the spread being the 50/50 tipping point of the predicted score, the general probability of getting this is 12.08%. I want to see how the adaptive spread continues to develop as the weeks progress. I really liked the way it performed this week, but I hope that this next adaption it takes doesn't tank its accuracy
For this week, I am not going to adjust the model because I want to see how the big changes I made last week work out. For those of you who are keeping up with this, thank you! I am really excited to be learning how to make a model.
If you'd like access to the model, just email me, I'd be happy to share :)