Hey guys! All my life, I have been passionate about math. I love numbers and I really enjoy the way they can be used to explain the world around us.
I am also a very passionate sports fan. I played just about every sport imaginable growing up, and I still try to remain as active as possible to this day.
Over the past few days, I have been working on a mathematical model that predicts the outcomes of NFL games. I learned how to use the importXML function within sheets to pull some important data from the web, and I use different variables (gonna keep this secret) to predict the scores of NFL games.
The inputs will be Team 1, Team 2, and which week the NFL is on (yes, this matters). The model will output a win probability, predicted score. The reason that the spread doesn't match the predicted score is that the predicted score is a calculated average, whereas the spread a more in-depth calculation, and is a simulation-based weighted average of a few different ways I calculated spreads.
After this week, I will see where I stand and adapt the model from there. This is just the start.
If you'd like access to the model, just email me, I'd be happy to share :)