I am proud of what the model predicted for the spreads this past week. It got 4/5 of the spreads right and then the sixth game (TB/WAS) pushed at +8. 80% of the spreads for the playoffs is pretty good, and would have turned a nice profit if I was back up where I could wager on it. I updated the necessary ELOs for the next round of the playoffs so here are my picks. The spreads are as of 1/12/2021 on Fanduel:
Some of these picks may be weird, but I think it is because I used the raw numbers for PF/PA rather than weighting them based on each game. Next years' model will have them be weighted per team per game, which will make the results a lot more accurate and likely change around some outcomes. For example, the Ravens have rounded 31 PF and 18 PA, but this doesn't take into account who they have actually played.
If you'd like access to the model, just email me, I'd be happy to share :)